Nearly 130 Cases Notified (Press, 16 May 1989)

As of May 1989, nearly 130 cases of A.I.D.S. had been reported in New Zealand, according to insights shared during a national conference on the disease. Dr Robert Carlson, an epidemiologist, revealed that by the end of April that year, there had been 128 notified cases - comprising 126 in men and 2 in women. He noted that the first quarter of 1989 saw over half the notifications recorded for the entirety of the previous year, indicating a worrying trend with 24 reports already filed. Dr Carlson explained that A.I.D.S. represents the most severe manifestation of H.I.V., with a lengthy incubation period before the disease becomes apparent. Current data suggests that the median incubation time spans between seven to ten years, which means the individuals currently diagnosed with A.I.D.S. were likely infected several years prior. He further indicated that the prevalence of the disease in New Zealand mirrors the rates observed in Australia and the United Kingdom on a population basis. Professor David Skegg from the Otago Medical School added that New Zealand's A.I.D.S. epidemic might not reach its peak until after the year 2000. He emphasised that even if all transmission were halted immediately, the country could still anticipate more cases in the following decade than what had already occurred. Furthermore, he warned that if there was a regression in the positive changes in sexual behaviour, the number of cases could potentially increase even further.

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