Timaru Campaign Will Test National Seat (Press, 6 July 1987)

The Timaru electorate is facing a major test in the upcoming General Election, following the unexpected victory of National in the 1985 by-election. Traditionally a Labour stronghold for 57 years, Timaru is questioning whether the National win was a one-off result or indicative of a significant political shift. The change followed the death of long-serving Labour MP Sir Basil Arthur in 1985, which led to Labour's poor campaign that year. Labour’s candidate, Jan Walker, was seen as an outsider with feminist views, while Maurice McTigue from National, a local farmer and conservative, leveraged his established presence in the community to secure victory. Despite the Labour party's attempts to regain influence in the Timaru electorate, challenges remain. Voter turnout during the by-election saw many Labour supporters abstain, leading to a 13 per cent decrease in their vote share. Meanwhile, National gained a modest 4.5 per cent increase, allowing McTigue to win by a margin of 1,492 votes. The recent boundary changes have only minorly altered the electorate's make-up, with most voters still within the city and surrounding rural areas that historically favour National. In the lead-up to the 1987 General Election, National is focusing on solidifying McTigue’s image and capitalising on Labour’s disadvantages. Labour is putting forward Gary Clarke, a local solicitor, but observers note he has yet to establish a strong local presence. McTigue's proactive engagement on key local issues, such as the closure of the Watties factory, has raised his profile. Economic challenges, including rising unemployment and a struggling local economy, have generated discontent among voters, with many attributing their hardships to government policies. The electorate appears to be pragmatic and values candidates who prioritise local concerns over specific party ideologies. Historically, Timaru has supported conservative representatives, and despite recent economic difficulties, the community showcases signs of affluence with new businesses emerging. Voter demographics indicate strong support for conservative social values, particularly regarding issues like abortion and homosexual law reform. Competing parties, such as the New Zealand Party and the New Zealand Democratic Party, face significant hurdles, as their local candidates have low visibility and popularity. Both major parties are vying for the votes of those who may have previously shifted to third parties, with Labour showing confidence based on positive opinion polls. Labour believes that if it can effectively mobilise its supporters and increase its vote share by 9 per cent, it could regain control of Timaru. Ultimately, the election will reveal whether the abstention of over 3,000 Labour supporters in the 1985 by-election was a fleeting protest against specific issues or a deeper discontent with the party’s direction. The outcome will be crucial in determining Timaru's political future and assessing the broader sentiments of New Zealand voters during this transitional period.

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