Election Whims In Two Towns Will Decide Tasman... (Press, 2 July 1987)

The outcome of the upcoming election for the Tasman electorate is set to be significantly influenced by the voting decisions of undecided voters in the urban areas of Richmond and Motueka. A recent poll conducted by Nelson Polytechnic on behalf of the "Nelson Evening Mail" indicates that Labour’s Ken Shirley holds a slight lead over National’s Gerald Hunt, with Shirley at 4 per cent ahead. This marks an improvement for Labour, which had previously lagged behind National by 1.6 per cent in an October 1986 poll. However, the share of undecided voters, which stands at a notable 30 per cent, is seen as a crucial factor in determining the election's outcome. Notably, both Richmond and Motueka, key Labour strongholds, show diminishing support for Shirley. In Richmond, Labour garnered 51.5 per cent of the vote in the last election but has now dropped to 28.2 per cent. Similarly, Motueka's Labour support fell from 67 per cent in 1984 to 31.7 per cent in the current poll, while National’s support in the town increased to 21.7 per cent from 16 per cent. This shift suggests that traditional Labour backing is wavering, with many voters remaining undecided. Ken Shirley, a first-term MP with a background in resource management, is seen as a diligent politician, although he has a lower profile than his influential predecessor, Sir Wallace Rowling. He acknowledges that uncommitted voters are pivotal in securing another Labour win and expresses concern that traditional Labour supporters may feel alienated due to the government's economic policies. On the other hand, Gerald Hunt, a Motueka tobacco farmer and seasoned candidate who has previously run for parliament, believes that this might be his moment to succeed, capitalising on the dissatisfaction with the current government's economic management and related issues. Hunt has been campaigning full-time since late 1986 and aims to leverage his deep roots in the community to garner support. Tasman is a predominantly rural electorate that has historically leaned Labour, benefiting from strong agricultural output, including being a key producer of kiwifruit and apples. However, economic challenges, such as high interest rates affecting farmers, are cited by Hunt as diminishing Labour's appeal among rural voters. Recent boundary changes have also played a role in shaping the electoral landscape, with areas transitioning from Tasman to Marlborough that previously supported National, while retaining pro-Labour areas like Murchison. Both candidates believe they are attracting disaffected voters from the opposing camp, and without alternative candidates vying for votes, the potential for a swing among undecided voters remains high. Political analysts speculate that while Shirley may have the upper hand due to his parliamentary experience, he could still lose the seat if disenchanted Labour supporters do not turn out on election day.

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