A.I.D.S.-vaccine Forecast (Press, 2 February 1987)

On 2 February 1987, medical experts from the United States indicated that a vaccine for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is unlikely to be available for at least five years. Dr Robert Gallo, associated with the U.S. National Cancer Institute, expressed that while various experimental vaccine candidates are being explored, the timeline for an effective vaccine could extend even longer than five years. He noted that numerous approaches have been tested, with some already progressing through animal trials and preparing for human testing later in the year. Gallo spoke at the World Health Organisation (WHO) headquarters while participating in a session of the WHO executive board, highlighting the severity of the AIDS crisis, which has led to 38,401 reported cases globally, with half of those resulting in death. Approximately 75% of these cases are from the United States, with the demographic primarily affected being homosexual men and intravenous drug users. In contrast, in Africa, the disease is largely transmitted through heterosexual relationships. Additionally, Dr Jonathan Mann, who leads the WHO AIDS-control programme, echoed Gallo’s sentiments regarding the vaccine timeline, emphasising that significant research and trials would be necessary before a reliable vaccine could be developed. Mann also clarified that existing vaccination programmes for diseases like measles and tuberculosis do not contribute to the spread of AIDS among children in Africa. He pointed out that African children contract the virus mainly through infected mothers or blood transfusions, not from vaccinations. The report presented at the WHO meeting indicated uncertainty around the true extent of AIDS in Africa. However, it suggested that central and eastern regions, as well as parts of southern Africa, are particularly hard hit, while western Africa appears to be less affected. Current estimates suggest there may be around one million individuals infected with the AIDS virus in Africa, though this figure is considered a conservative estimate by some experts.

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