National Unhappy About Poll (Press, 21 July 1986)

A public opinion poll conducted by "Eye Witness"Heylen at the end of July 1986 has revealed a narrowing gap between the Labour Government and National Opposition, with Labour's support decreasing from 53 per cent to 49 per cent and National's increasing from 42 per cent to 44 per cent. Despite the shift, Labour remains ahead by five points, though both parties face challenges. The poll comes on the heels of three significant events that have adversely affected the Labour Government. Firstly, the resolution of the Rainbow Warrior incident led to the release of two convicted French agents, raising concerns and dissatisfaction among the public, particularly regarding the agents' transfer to a French military installation on Hao. Secondly, it was disclosed that the internal deficit was $1,000 million higher than anticipated, prompting forecasts of further expenditure cuts. Lastly, the passage of homosexual law reform through Parliament, facilitated by a strong majority from government supporters, has also stirred mixed reactions. In terms of leadership approval, Prime Minister David Lange saw a drop in preferred Prime Minister ratings from 33 points to 30, still surpassing the combined total of his National Party rivals. Sir Robert Muldoon’s rating fell from 17 points to 14, affected by his recent absence overseas, while new National Party leader Jim Bolger saw an increase from 13 to 14 points, achieving a plateau in his ratings over recent months. Public perception of Lange's performance has declined, with only 45 per cent of those polled believing he is doing a good job, marking a significant dip in his popularity. Support for Labour's economic policies appears to have waned, although there is typically a delay of about three months in public reactions to economic indicators and party ratings. Notably, the only economic aspect that showed improvement was public approval of the goods and services tax. Despite the turmoil, the consistent five-point gap suggests that National has not yet articulated concrete policies that resonate with the electorate, which highlights a crucial factor in their ongoing challenges to Labour. Bolger's approval rating as Leader of the Opposition has risen to 45 per cent, while Lange's plummeting popularity reflects broader dissatisfaction, particularly in light of the government's handling of the Rainbow Warrior situation and other pressing economic issues.

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