Labour Party Looks Beyond 1987 (Press, 11 January 1986)

In 1985, the Labour Party in New Zealand made significant strides towards its ambition of becoming the "natural party of Government." This progress can be attributed to both the inaction of its political opponents and the effectiveness of Labour's own initiatives. Prime Minister David Lange formally articulated this objective recently, having first hinted at it in a private paper by Under-secretary for Trade and Industry, Peter Neilson, in April 1985. Neilson described the Labour Party's free-market economic policy as the "glue" binding the party's diverse coalition, expressing confidence that if the policy was successful, Labour could maintain power for two or three elections. Public opinion polls reflect this advancement, showing Labour consistently ahead of the National Party by 14 to 19 points. Although criticisms have arisen regarding the polling process, the central question remains valid: whom would voters choose if an election were held on polling day? The frequency of polls indicates Labour’s popularity amidst noticeable disarray within the National Party, which faces issues such as weak leadership and internal conflicts, including criticisms related to the "loans affair." Despite these problems, the National Party's support has slightly increased from its 1984 election night performance. Labour's substantial lead is attributed largely to its widespread policy support and its proactive stance that has undermined third parties, which have historically garnered significant voter support. In the past two decades, third parties like Social Credit, Values, and the New Zealand Party have collectively influenced many elections. However, Labour has managed to attract the support of these voters, who were previously disillusioned with traditional parties and sought major changes in governance. Labour has benefited from favourable circumstances, including economic restructuring that has, so far, been less painful than anticipated, as well as the persistent nuclear and A.N.Z.U.S. debates that have kept its loyal base intact. Various attention-grabbing issues, such as adult adoption information and homosexual law reforms, have also drawn public focus away from more pressing but less engaging concerns, such as economic stability and unemployment. By the end of 1985, Labour had significantly advanced towards its goal but needed ongoing favourable conditions in 1986 to maintain this momentum. Key uncertainties loom regarding the impact of the Goods and Services Tax on inflation, low export prices on the economy, unemployment rates, interest rates, and the effectiveness of the National Party's opposition should it manage to reorganise. While Labour has achieved considerable progress since its election in July 1984, the challenges ahead will determine if it can secure its long-term objective.

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