A.I.D.S. Spiral Forecast For N.Z. (Press, 4 January 1986)

On 4 January 1986, health authorities in New Zealand expressed concern that the number of A.I.D.S. cases would significantly rise in the coming year, potentially reaching seven to eight times the current total of 14 cases. Ms Kate Leslie, chairwoman of the A.I.D.S. Foundation, anticipated that the total could climb into the hundreds, mimicking a similar increase seen in Australia, where cases surged from 22 to 220 within a year. Leslie noted that the spread of A.I.D.S. generally followed a similar pattern across countries once the disease was established. Despite the predicted increase, Leslie indicated that New Zealand's early educational initiatives might help mitigate the impact, allowing the country to manage its situation more effectively than many others. She referenced insights from the National Institute of Health in the United States, which forecasted that A.I.D.S. would continue to spread until the year 2000, even with the potential development of effective treatments or vaccines. Among the reported cases in New Zealand, seven individuals had died from A.I.D.S., while doctors treated various conditions related to the disease, estimated to number around 20, given the lack of a central registry for such patients. Additionally, about 40 to 50 people were found to have A.I.D.S. antibodies, indicating they had been infected with the virus and posed a risk of contagion, although this did not guarantee they would develop the disease. Leslie highlighted that intravenous drug users were likely to be among the first to exhibit A.I.D.S. cases in New Zealand. Needle-sharing was identified as a primary risk factor for transmission, a concern that remained as only a third of drug users attended treatment clinics. Despite these challenges, Leslie reported that significant progress had been made in countering the virus in 1985, including the establishment of the A.I.D.S. Foundation, the creation of support networks, and training programmes for volunteers in several cities. A decline in venereal diseases suggested decreased promiscuity, with more individuals opting for celibacy or monogamous relationships. Efforts to educate the public had proven successful, motivating plans for further focus on high-risk behaviours, including needle-sharing and unprotected sex. The foundation planned to send representatives to the USA for training in the Stop A.I.D.S. project, which fosters open discussions in small groups about risky sexual practices. Condoms were highlighted as an effective preventative measure against the A.I.D.S. virus in a recent study by researchers at the University of California San Francisco Medical Centre, who confirmed that the virus could not penetrate five commercially available condom brands. Leslie welcomed this finding as a significant boost for safe sex practices, commending the wider availability of condoms in New Zealand. Moving forward, the foundation aims to promote responsible sexual behaviour through education, which Leslie emphasised as crucial both to reducing A.I.D.S. cases and to combating misconceptions surrounding the disease. She noted that human behaviour, and the changes made to it, would ultimately dictate the trajectory of A.I.D.S. cases in New Zealand.

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