The Press Tuesday, May 7, 1985. Timaru A Test For... (Press, 7 May 1985)

The sudden death of Sir Basil Arthur presents a significant challenge for the Labour Government and Parliament, particularly in selecting his successor as Speaker of the House. Sir Basil’s deputy, John Terris, lacks the support of the Opposition, leading to a potentially contentious election process. The Labour Government is under pressure as it faces a by-election for the Timaru seat left vacant by Sir Basil, a situation that could complicate its legislative agenda. Sir Basil had a strong personal following, evidenced by his majority of over 2200 votes in the last General Election, but this majority cannot be considered safe given the current volatile political climate. His passing represents further disconnection between the Labour Government and its trade union roots, as the party has shifted toward a more professional and middle-class approach in recent years. This change is highlighted by ongoing tensions with the Federation of Labour over economic policies. By-elections often provide a platform for voters to express dissatisfaction with the ruling government, and the current Labour Government is particularly vulnerable. Unfulfilled promises, the mishandling of national superannuation, rising prices and interest rates, and contentious social issues are all likely to weigh heavily on the Government’s chances in Timaru. A 5.6 per cent swing in voter sentiment could see the seat transition to the National Party, a possibility that is not out of reach. The Government's internal dynamics also could be affected, as many members are currently serving with slim majorities. A poor performance in Timaru may raise concerns among Labour caucus members about their standings and the Cabinet's ability to respond to an electorate disillusioned with recent policy changes. For the National Party, the Timaru by-election represents a crucial opportunity to regain momentum following their defeat in the previous election. Leader Mr McLay is keen to improve relations within the party and needs to demonstrate that National can offer better economic policies, even though the party has reduced options for distinct policy changes. The presence of the New Zealand Party, which previously garnered 8 per cent of the vote in Timaru, adds another layer of competition for the National Party, which is also looking to reclaim support from disillusioned voters. The minor parties will also be active in this by-election, with the New Zealand Party seeking to improve upon its initial results and Social Credit aiming to regain lost ground. Overall, the Timaru by-election poses a challenging test for all political parties, impacting not only the immediate political landscape but also the forthcoming General Election as parties prepare to navigate the shifting electoral sentiments.

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