Balance Of Power Shifting In Auckland (Press, 13 July 1984)

The electoral landscape for four Auckland metropolitan electorates—West Auckland, Glenfield, East Coast Bays, and Eden—is being closely monitored as a potential indicator of broader voting trends ahead of the polling day. A significant decline in support for the National Party could jeopardise the chances of three additional electorates: Birkenhead, Pakuranga, and Papakura. Conversely, Labour may face challenges in Onehunga, Papatoetoe, and Waitakere if their support wanes. West Auckland, which has historically been held by the National Party and is now influenced by recent boundary changes, may see Labour leading by approximately 400 votes, thanks in part to 4,600 Social Credit voters in 1981. However, many who previously supported Social Credit appear to be shifting towards Labour or the New Zealand Party. Factors contributing to National's difficulties here include resource reallocation to other electorates, Labour's positive representation by candidate J. Elder, and the unfortunate start to Mr D. M. J. Jones' campaign after the unexpected election announcement. Glenfield, a newly formed electorate combining parts of National-held Albany, Helensville, and East Coast Bays, presents an uncertain political picture. The voter base reflects a National (6,779 votes), Labour (5,310 votes), and Social Credit (5,065 votes) distribution from 1981, although it is likely that the Social Credit vote has declined due to the absence of a local sitting MP and the departure of significant Social Credit areas. The contest is now primarily between Labour's Mrs J. M. Keall and National's Mr D. L. Schnauer, with emerging competition from the New Zealand Party's Mr G. A. West. Given the lack of local issues and the close positioning of both major parties, Glenfield could yield essential insights into electoral movement. In the Eden electorate, National’s A. G. Malcolm narrowly retained his seat by just 113 votes in 1981. Due to boundary modifications, he holds a slight majority of 303 votes currently, but demographic shifts in the area tend to favour Labour's more socially progressive image. Mr R. J. Northey from Labour possesses a stronger organisational backing and higher profile than previous Labour candidates, setting the stage for a competitive race, despite diminished support for Social Credit and the presence of a less competitive New Zealand Party candidate. Eden is crucial for both parties, with resources heavily invested by each side, and preliminary polling indicates Labour may have a slight lead. East Coast Bays, once a solid National seat claimed by Social Credit in a 1979 by-election, may now be losing ground for Social Credit due to boundary realignment and a national decline in their support. The former Social Credit member G. T. Knapp, known for his appeal, may struggle against National's Mr M. S. McCully, a young and seasoned party member. Knapp's strategy involves courting Labour voters to retain his position, suggesting that it is plausible he could still hold East Coast Bays in the face of unfavourable electoral conditions. Overall, these electorates are pivotal in shaping the outcome of the upcoming election.

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