Iran Having Second Thoughts About’ Revolution (Press, 18 March 1981)

The American embassy compound in Tehran, previously intended to serve as a hostel for victims of the Iranian revolution and ensuing war, remains deserted, signalling a shift towards pragmatism among Iran’s rulers. This change, previously obscured by the focus on the American hostages and British Anglican prisoners, is partly marked by Ayatollah Khomeiny's decision to prohibit the Martyrs Organisation from moving into the embassy. Khomeiny continues to advocate for the revolution's purported aim of aiding the poor, which is reflected in ongoing efforts by youth volunteers, reminiscent of the US Peace Corps, who are actively engaged in building essential infrastructure in impoverished areas. The political landscape in Iran is evolving, with a noticeable decrease in purges of "unIslamic" officials and the establishment of new judicial rules that require capital sentences to receive review by the Supreme Court, effectively curtailing the previous culture of summary executions. However, executions for moral offences persist, although at a reduced frequency. As the initial coalition of revolutionary forces begins to fragment, internal strife among clerical factions is observed. The Islamic Republic Party (IRP), which dominates state institutions, does not enjoy unanimous support among the clergy, with divisions evident, particularly between those advocating for a more pastoral role for religious leadership, led by Ayatollah Shariatmadari, and the IRP's demands for political influence. Underlying this power struggle is President Bani-Sadr’s faction, which seeks to advance a moderate agenda, though it faces opposition from the IRP and groups who resort to violence against progressive elements. The emergence of political pluralism, characterised by public discourse and distribution of political pamphlets, signifies a notable shift from the previous regime’s oppressive atmosphere. While Bani-Sadr lacks a formal party, the Iranian Liberation Movement offers embryonic opposition to the IRP's grip on power. The Majlis is exploring the facilitation of political parties that align with Islamic tenets, with potential inclusion of the Tudeh (Communist) Party amongst others, despite some leftist factions remaining outlawed. A significant factor looming over Iran’s political future is Ayatollah Khomeiny's health. His potential demise raises concerns regarding succession and the ambiguity surrounding the selection of a new leader, which could instigate a period of turmoil. Ayatollah Mohammad Montazeri is being proposed by the IRP, although questions remain about his suitability to lead. In contrast, Ayatollah Seyyed Beheshti, currently a pivotal figure due to his dual role as Chief Justice and IRP secretary, is recognised for his potential leadership qualities. The resistance from Bani-Sadr's supporters may lead to a deadlock in leadership succession, amplifying fears of chaos, which could either invite a military intervention or benefit exiled groups, although support for the latter is notably lacking after their prior stance during the Iran-Iraq War.

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