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Summary: Italy's Election May Mark Europe's Turning Point (Press, 19 April 1976)
Italy is gearing up for an early General Election, likely to take place in mid-June 1976, following a period of political turmoil and uncertainty. This election is regarded as potentially transformative for Europe, as it raises the question of whether the Italian electorate will vote the Communists into power, potentially instigating a shift in political dynamics across Western Europe. The implications of a Communist-led government in Italy could inspire similar outcomes in countries like France, where a Socialist-Communist government may be elected in 1978, fostering a ripple effect across the continent. Recent opinion polls indicate a significant decline in support for the ruling Christian Democrats, suggesting they could finish third behind the Communists and Socialists in the upcoming elections. However, the increasingly violent and extremist climate is a source of concern, with political violence having marred previous electoral processes since 1972. Groups such as the "Red Brigades" and the "Proletarian Action Squad" have contributed to the atmosphere of dread, engaging in violent acts such as arson against factories. The situation is further complicated by the tension between the Right and Left factions in Italy. Political violence is widespread, with theories suggesting both right- and left-wing members may be fomenting unrest to provoke backlash or blame. Veteran Christian Democrat leader Amintore Fanfani has been brought back to steer the party through the upcoming elections amid fears of a red scare campaign, fundamentally aimed at galvanising Right-wing support. The crux of the issue lies in the possibility of collaboration post-election. The Christian Democrats and Communists have historically been at odds, and with the Left growing in strength—often seen as a threat by the Christian Democrats—cooperation may prove elusive. The Left, fearing being coerced into forming a popular-front government with the Socialists, is likely to resist any overtures that may dilute their power. Despite their rising popularity, the Italian Communist Party, led by Enrico Berlinguer, expresses concerns about being perceived negatively on the international stage, particularly by the United States. Their official stance advocates for a broad consensus government, or "historic compromise," with the Christian Democrats. This strategy is seen as essential not only for national stability but also as a calculated move to avoid alienating foreign allies. Berlinguer appears aware that aligning too closely with more radical factions could jeopardise the Communists' positions and future prospects. As the date of the election approaches, it remains unclear whether any actual collaboration will be possible between the parties, or whether a centrist coalition can be formed. The political landscape is fraught with uncertainty, as the potential for significant change in Italy and beyond hangs in the balance due to the unfolding electoral drama.
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