With less than twenty four hours to go before the polling places open, polls are indicating that the number of openly glbt MPs is likely remain the same as for the last term. Polls up to this morning are showing National strongly outperforming Labour, with indications that both have lost some support to the Greens. Given some variance in poll results, such as a NZ Herald poll which shows a much wider margin between National and Labour than other polls, it is possible that National will receive around 47% of the party vote, Labour 36% and the Greens 9%. If these figures accurately predict the election results tomorrow night current Labour list MP Louisa Wall would not be back in the House, but the Greens' gay candidate Kevin Hague would likely be in. Labour's new gay candidate Grant Robertson is still considered a shoe-in in the liberal Wellington Central electorate, and both Chris Carter and Maryan Street are assuredly safe, as is National's Chris Finlayson. As a result it is likely that the overall number of openly glbt MPs will remain at six as it was at the end of the last Parliamentary term when the glbt MPs were Chris Carter, Chris Finlayson, Charles Chauvel, Maryan Street and Louisa Wall. High profile gay MP Tim Barnett did not seek re-election. As to what parties will form the new government, it is still a close call. National's likely coalition partners United Future and ACT are both polling poorly on the projected party vote but each is likely to gain several MPs on the back of their leaders' likely electorate wins. Of Labour's coalition prospects, the Greens - who have said they will not join with National - are the strongest minor party and could have seven MPs, Jim Anderton is assured to win his Wigram electorate and bring at least one Progressive MP into the house on his coat-tails. NZ first is looking unlikely to be back in Parliament and although the Maori party will return with a handful of MPs it is unknown who they would favour as a coalition partner, although Labour has historically been closer to Maori voters. A meta-graph of recent election polls is currently displayed on the Wikipedia website.
Credit: GayNZ.com Daily News staff
First published: Friday, 7th November 2008 - 1:58pm