Future Prime Minister? Labour's Phil Goff If National does win the forthcoming general election, might it then only serve a single term of office before it has to face the prospect of long-term opposition once again? Consider the possibility that it may well wish that it hadn't won, if it has to deal with the current economic turmoil and a backlash against its foolish anti-union and work for the dole policies, as well as growth in unemployment. All of these cumulative economic factors may explain why the Opposition is in such a hurry to hold a binding referendum to dispose of MMP in 2011. Otherwise, it might find itself thrown back of office at the end of a single term, in an effective interregnum between the Clark and Goff administrations. National may find itself in a dilemma after forthcoming opinion poll subsidence, without any viable centre-right coalition partners due to Brash's opportunism back in 2005. New Zealand First may not survive Saturday's election, and ACT is also highly vulnerable to strategic voting in its sole constituency seat, Epsom. This leaves it with United Future, and the electorate has had quite enough of any fundamentalist contingent that Dunne might bring with him. In his case, there are also questions about whether UFNZ's surviving fundamentalists would remain affiliated if Dunne were to resume his status as their sole parliamentary representative. Of course, there's always the Maori Party. However, despite Tariana Turia's aspirations to the contrary, much of the Maori electorate would probably prefer that the Maori Party exists as an independent presence that would strengthen Maori representation when it came to issues affecting their land, language, cultural preservation and resource ownership. As National is still committed to abolishing the Maori seats, I'd question whether such a relationship could have any long-term future. Therefore, it is quite possible to envisage a situation where National faces a cataclysm at the end of any Key administration's first (and only?) term of office, where any superfluous and costly anti-MMP referendum will be bitterly resented and face a backlash. Bereft of plausible allies, the party may well be returned to long-term Opposition status. How would this affect LGBT rights issues? As I've said, provocation defence reform would probably be a 'safe' issue for National to deal with, as it doesn't attract as much opposition from the Christian Right as same-sex marriage proper and inclusive adoption reform will, given time. On the other hand, though, the Christian Right may have to face a dampened down set of expectations. It may overturn Section 59 Repeal, but that's probably about it. To go any further than that would be to risk co-ordinated and effective professional opposition if it came to abortion, and they wouldn't have much effective support if they tried to revive banning same-sex marriage as an issue. By 2011, then, our own reform agenda may be back on track. Phil Goff will be the next Labour leader when Clark steps down, which will either be when she chooses to retire, or if she is finally defeated at the forthcoming election. One hopes that the latter will not happen. Craig Young - 6th November 2008