Sat 5 Mar 2011 In: New Zealand Daily News View at Wayback View at NDHA
Shaun Robinson Diagnoses of HIV infection amongst gay and bi men will surge even higher than the current record level before any new interventions can take effect, according to the NZ AIDS Foundation. Figures made available late last week indicate that 2010 was "the worst year on record" for HIV diagnoses since the emergence of the HIV epidemic decimated the gay community over two decades ago. From an all-time low of under 30 annual diagnoses, in 1997, the number of gay and bi men diagnosed with the debilitating sexually transmitted virus has inexorably risen to an official 90 for last year. However the real figure is most likely approximately 100, given that an additional 10 people for whom the circumstances of HIV transmission are not recorded are statistically likely to be gay and bi men. And the surge, which started around 1999/2000, is a trend that's going to get worse before it gets better. "I would say that we are probably looking at at least three years before we see a downturn," says newly-appointed NZAF Executive Director Shaun Robinson. Pressed to predict a figure for five years' time if the current surge continues without effective safe sex campaigns being mounted "we could be looking at up to 120 cases a year," Robinson predicts. Of the 90 confirmed gay and bi men diagnosed last year 71% are European New Zealanders, 10% are Maori, 10% Asian and 1% Pacific Islanders, according to figures compiled by the AIDS Epidemiology Group at the University of Otago Medical School. 40% live in Auckland and 28% in Wellington. The average age is 38. 64% of the newly diagnosed gay and bi men were believed to have been infected within New Zealand. Overseas infections have remained relatively steady over the past decade, indicating that it is locally contracted HIV infections which are driving the surge. The proportion of newly HIV positive men who had tested HIV negative in recent years implicates new infections as being a major component of the surge. Regular periodic research indicates a remarkably high level of condom use amongst NZ gay and bi men, including 70% of men claiming a high level of adherence to condom use for casual sex encounters. Robinson says this figure must go even higher if the escalating spread of HIV is to be controlled. But he is unsure how high condom use must actually go to reverse the decade-long surge. "We don't know exactly what the tipping point will be, maybe 75%, maybe more, but eventually it will kick in," he says. The Foundation is promising an "immediate and effective" response to last week's revelations, "but we can't do it alone and we can't do it overnight. To be blunt," Robinson says, "we are going to need the entire community to get more condoms onto more cocks." You can discuss this New Zealand glbt community news story in the GayNZ.com Forum.
Credit: GayNZ.com Daily News staff
First published: Saturday, 5th March 2011 - 1:30pm